Instance-dependent sequential limits as an exact information ledger

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Instance-dependent limits for bandit regret, sequential tests, best-arm identification and Markov decision processes are proved by one chain. It runs from a divergence decomposition through data processing to a statistic, a testing step that turns a class guarantee into a requirement on the history, and optimization over alternatives and allocations. Only the first step is an identity. This work writes the chain as an exact ledger. By the chain rule, data processing loses exactly a conditional divergence, which vanishes for arms in natural exponential families at the per-arm counts and reward sums. A one-parameter family of martingale identities extends the decomposition to every tilt between two instances. The classical limits follow by relaxations with named defects. All defects but the asymptotic step's can be computed from an algorithm's own runs, the uniform quantification's only when the class guarantee is a number. On seven published sources, from movie ratings to engine replacement, the ledger locates the difference between standard algorithms and the classical limits. For identification among trained models and for Wald's test the largest term is usually the uniform quantification's.

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